Pot odds and outs

Pot odds is basically how much you get back based on how much you have to put in (generally when you are considering calling a bet or raise). So assuming the blinds are $1/$2 and you are the big blind. If an early position (EP) player raises to $6 and it is folded to you, then the pot odds is the total amount currently in the pot compared to the additional amount you need to put in. So $1 + $2 + $6 = $9. You need to call $4 more. So you are getting 2.25 to 1 on your money. For every $1 you put in, you get back $2.25 if you win.

In order for this (or any call) to be "correct", the odds of you actually winning the hand should be better than 2.25 to 1 (if it's exactly 2.25 to 1, then it doesn't matter if you play the hand or not since over the long term, you should come out even).

The way you figure out your odds of winning is based on outs. This is more relevant post-flop but can be used pre-flop if you really understand how your opponent plays (this is where being able to read your opponent is extremely valuable). Let's assume you call. The pot is now $13. You have Ah Th. The flop is Jc Kd 5s. You check and your opponent bets $10. Should you call?

Well, this depends on what hand you put your opponent on. I'll discuss reading your opponent in another post, so let's just play level 1 poker (which means just based on your own cards). You have a gutshot straight draw and your ace might be live (the term live means that if you pair that card, it would give you the best hand). Your ten might also be live, but less likely so we don't include that in our calculations. So you have 3 aces (potentially), and four queens. Giving you 7 outs. The quick way to calculate your odds of winning is to multiply the number of outs on the flop by 3 to hit the turn and to multiply the outs by 2 on the turn to hit the river. So we are roughly 21% to win (assuming we are actually behind at this time). 21% is roughly 4:1 against us. The pot is now $23 and we have to call $10 to continue which is just 2.3:1. Based on this particular situation, we should fold since we aren't getting the correct pot odds.

If you remember the coin flip example, if we call everytime in this situation, our expected value (EV) is negative since we don't get paid enough to cover the risk. Of course this was a made up example and there are other factors to consider when you decide to call or not including: the type of opponent your against, the implied odds, whether you can bluff at the pot later, etc... which I'll write about later.